Constructing Wildebeest Density Distributions by Spatio-temporal Smoothing of Ordinal Categorical Data Using GAMs

Spatio-temporal smoothing of large ecological datasets describing species distributions can be made challenging by high computational costs and deficiencies in the available data. We present an application of a GAM-based smoothing method to a large ordinal categorical dataset on the distribution of wildebeest in the Serengeti ecosystem

Influence of the physical environment and conspecific aggression on the spatial arrangement of breeding grey seals

Understanding the habitat requirements of a species for breeding is essential for its conservation, particularly if the availability of suitable habitat is a limiting factor for population growth. This is postulated to be the case for grey seals, one of the more abundant marine apex predators in northern European waters. In common with similar studies that have investigated the habitat preferences of breeding grey seals, we use abiotic (topographical, climatological) attributes but, unlike previous work, we also incorporate behavioural variables, particularly the occurrence of aggressive interactions between females and the presence of neighbouring seals. We used two Generalized Additive Models (GAM) in a sequential and iterative fashion. The first model links the occurrence of aggression at particular points in the colony to local topography derived from a Geographical Information System (GIS), presence of neighbouring seal pups and the day of the breeding season. The output of this GAM is used as one of the explanatory variables in a GAM of daily variation in the spatial distribution of births. Although proximity of a birth site to a water source and the presence of neighbouring seal pups both had significant influences on the distribution of newborn pups over time and space, at the scale of the study site it was found that simple rules could predict pup distribution more efficiently than a complex individual-based simulation model. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.PostprintPeer reviewe

Indirect effects of primary prey population dynamics on alternative prey

We develop a theory of generalist predation showing how alternative prey species are affected by changes in both mean abundance and variability (coefficient of variation) of their predator's primary prey. The theory is motivated by the indirect effects of cyclic rodent populations on ground-breeding birds, and developed through progressive analytic simplifications of an empirically-based model. It applies nonetheless to many other systems where primary prey have fast life-histories and can become locally superabundant, which facilitates impact on alternative prey species. In contrast to classic apparent competition theory based on symmetric interactions, our results suggest that predator effects on alternative prey should generally decrease with mean primary prey abundance, and increase with primary prey variability (low to high CV) - unless predators have strong aggregative responses, in which case these results can be reversed. Approximations of models including predator dynamics (general numerical response with possible delays) confirm these results but further suggest that negative temporal correlation between predator and primary prey is harmful to alternative prey. We find in general that predator numerical responses are crucial to predict the response of ecosystems to changes in key prey species exhibiting outbreaks, and extend the apparent competition/mutualism theory to asymmetric interactions

Environmental predictability as a cause and consequence of animal movement

The impacts of environmental predictability on the ecology and evolution of animal movement have been the subject of vigorous speculation for several decades. Recently, the swell of new biologging technologies has further stimulated their investigation. This advancing research frontier, however, still lacks conceptual unification and has so far focused little on converse effects. Populations of moving animals have ubiquitous effects on processes such as nutrient cycling and seed dispersal and may therefore shape patterns of environmental predictability. Here, we synthesise the main strands of the literature on the feedbacks between environmental predictability and animal movement and discuss how they may react to anthropogenic disruption, leading to unexpected threats for wildlife and the environment

Communal and efficient movement routines can develop spontaneously through public information use

Animal aggregations occur in almost all taxa and can be strongly influential for consumer-resource dynamics and population health. Their adaptive value and underlying mechanisms are thus fundamental questions. Many animals use information about resource locations inadvertently broadcasted by other individuals through visual, acoustic, or olfactory cues. Such simple, involuntary information transfer is commonly employed in groups of social animals. However, it remains unknown whether public information use could have been the initial cause of social aggregations. Here, using agent-based modeling, in the absence of inclusive fitness benefits or direct conspecific attraction, we show that the use of ephemeral public information about resource locations can cause memory-based foragers to spontaneously and permanently aggregate into communal home ranges that take the form of movement circuits (also called traplines) along which individuals travel asynchronously. Even though experienced individuals only rely on their personal memory to inform their movement decisions, we find that the use of public information during the learning phase is very beneficial in the long term because the communal circuits are more efficient than those established by individuals that do not use public information. Our results reveal how simple, inadvertent information transfer between naïve, selfish foragers can cause the emergence of long-term aggregations, which are a prerequisite for the evolution of more complex social behaviors. They also suggest that individuals may not necessarily need to witness the entire sequences of actions performed by others to converge to the same behavioral routines

Inference of the drivers of collective movement in two cell types: Dictyostelium and melanoma

Collective cell movement is a key component of many important biological processes, including wound healing, the immune response and the spread of cancers. To understand and influence these movements, we need to be able to identify and quantify the contribution of their different underlying mechanisms. Here, we define a set of six candidate models—formulated as advection–diffusion–reaction partial differential equations—that incorporate a range of cell movement drivers. We fitted these models to movement assay data from two different cell types: Dictyostelium discoideum and human melanoma. Model comparison using widely applicable information criterion suggested that movement in both of our study systems was driven primarily by a self-generated gradient in the concentration of a depletable chemical in the cells' environment. For melanoma, there was also evidence that overcrowding influenced movement. These applications of model inference to determine the most likely drivers of cell movement indicate that such statistical techniques have potential to support targeted experimental work in increasing our understanding of collective cell movement in a range of systems

Delayed mortality effects cut the malaria transmission potential of insecticide resistant mosquitoes

Malaria transmission has been substantially reduced across Africa through the distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). However, the emergence of insecticide resistance within mosquito vectors risks jeopardizing the future efficacy of this control strategy. The severity of this threat is uncertain because the consequences of resistance for mosquito fitness are poorly understood: while resistant mosquitoes are no longer immediately killed upon contact with LLINs, their transmission potential may be curtailed because of longer-term fitness costs that persist beyond the first 24 h after exposure. Here, we used a Bayesian state-space model to quantify the immediate (within 24 h of exposure) and delayed (>24 h after exposure) impact of insecticides on daily survival and malaria transmission potential of moderately and highly resistant laboratory populations of the major African malaria vector Anopheles gambiae. Contact with LLINs reduced the immediate survival of moderately and highly resistant An. gambiae strains by 60–100% and 3–61%, respectively, and delayed mortality impacts occurring beyond the first 24 h after exposure further reduced their overall life spans by nearly one-half. In total, insecticide exposure was predicted to reduce the lifetime malaria transmission potential of insecticide-resistant vectors by two-thirds, with delayed effects accounting for at least one-half of this reduction. The existence of substantial, previously unreported, delayed mortality effects within highly resistant malaria vectors following exposure to insecticides does not diminish the threat of growing resistance, but posits an explanation for the apparent paradox of continued LLIN effectiveness in the presence of high insecticide resistance

Defining the scale of habitat availability for models of habitat selection

Statistical models of habitat preference and species distribution (e.g. Resource Selection Functions and Maximum Entropy approaches) perform a quantitative comparison of the use of space with the availability of all habitats in an animal's environment. However, not all of space is accessible all of the time to all individuals, so availability is, in fact, determined by limitations in animal perception and mobility. Therefore, measuring habitat availability at biologically relevant scales is essential for understanding preference, but herein lies a trade-off: Models fitted at large spatial scales, will tend to average across the responses of different individuals that happen to be in regions with contrasting habitat compositions. We suggest that such models may fail to capture local extremes (hot-spots and cold-spots) in animal usage and call this potential problem, homogenization. In contrast, models fitted at smaller scales, will vary stochastically depending on the particular habitat composition of their narrow spatial neighborhood, and hence fail to describe responses when predicting for different sampling instances. This is the now well-documented issue of non-transferability of habitat models. We illustrate this trade-off, using a range of simulated experiments, incorporating variations in environmental gradients, richness and fragmentation. We propose diagnostics for detecting the two issues of homogenization and non-transferability and show that these scale-related symptoms are likely to be more pronounced in highly fragmented or steeply graded landscapes. Further, we address these problems, by treating the neighborhood of each cell in the landscape grid as an individual sampling instance (with its own neighborhood), hence allowing coefficients to respond to the local expectations of environmental variables according to a Generalized Functional Response (GFR). Under simulation this approach is consistently better at estimating robust (i.e. transferrable) habitat models at smaller scales, and less susceptible to homogenization at larger scales. At the same time, it represents the first application of a GFR to continuous space (rather than multiple, spatially distinct datasets), allowing the predictive advantages of this extension of species distribution models to become available to data from large-scale but single-site field studies

Changes in bodyweight and productivity in resource-restricted populations of red deer (Cervus elaphus) in response to deliberate reductions in density

In resource-restricted populations of red deer, it is well-established that body size at maturity, female fecundity and calf survivorship are reduced, yet there are few formal studies documenting a reversal of these effects with reduction of density. In this paper, we consider changes in adult bodyweight and fecundity in populations of red deer in upland Scotland, before, during and after substantial reductions in population. Using generalised linear mixed models, we analysed changes in bodyweight and fecundity for 15,401 male and 21,053 female red deer culled from 9 different properties over periods from 9 to 35 years. After controlling for the effects of age, bodyweight in males showed a significant negative relationship with density and a significant positive relationship with the magnitude of reduction in density from that of the previous year as well as from population density recorded 2 and 3 years previously, implying that although main effects may relate to immediate reductions in density from that of the preceding year, increases in male bodyweight may be responding to cumulative reductions in densities as much as 3 years later. Analyses of female bodyweight yielded similar results with a direct and measurable effect of current density on age-related female bodyweight and significant effects of reductions in density in immediately preceding years. In this case, the model of best fit (lowest AIC score) is that incorporating a 3-year time lag, implying that bodyweight may be responding to the effects of cumulative culls over a preceding period of up to 3 years. Pregnancy rates among females were strongly influenced by bodyweight and prevailing (current) density (with females of higher bodyweight more likely to be pregnant), but there was no consistent effect of reduction of density on the probability of pregnancy of young females (aged < 4 years) or older animals (4 years or older). The probability of a lactating female becoming pregnant again in the same year was however significantly higher 1 year after a reduction in population density. While we focus in this paper on red deer, the results are applicable to other mammalian species where bodyweight is a major driver of fecundity. Our analyses suggest that some improvement in fertility and individual animal quality (bodyweight) may be expected where population densities of resource-limited populations are sufficiently reduced